THIS map shows the eight places in England at risk of moving into a Tier 3 lockdown as coronavirus cases continue to rise.
Manchester – where the mayor is resisting pressure to go into the highest tier of Covid restrictions – unsurprisingly tops the list.
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Greater Manchester, pictured, is under pressure to go into Tier 3 lockdown[/caption]
The latest rate for the whole of Greater Manchester, which has a population of 2.8 million, is 392.8 cases per 100,000 people – up slightly on 381.8 in the previous week.
Mayor Andy Burnham has refused to move to Tier 3 and has instead called for a national “circuit breaker” lockdown.
The area now looks to be forced into a Tier three lockdown without his consent as it gets close to running out of emergency hospital beds.
Next on the watch list, which has been compiled by experts at King’s College London using data from the Covid Symptom App, is Newcastle where there are 348.4 cases per 100,000.
It’s followed by other hotspot areas in the North of England, including Nottingham and Bury.
Hartlepool, Salford, Sheffield and Leeds also make the top eight places which could be plunged into the toughest restrictions, according to experts.
Burnley and Pendle were on the list when it was published on Friday, but they were plunged into the most restrictive lockdown tier on Saturday.
Researcher behind the app say they are now using their estimates to predict which region could be next to be put under Tier 3 restrictions.
Using predicted symptomatic cases means that predictions can be made up to ten days before confirmed tested cases are made public, they say.
Their new “Tier Prediction model” takes the Tier 2 regions as defined by the Government (100,000 cases per million), uses the average estimated cases over the last seven days and ranks the regions in descending order.
The area with the largest weekly average prevalence is ranked the highest.
Daily new cases per million in the Northern and Southern regions of England over time[/caption]
This heat map shows UK prevalence figures based on those with symptoms[/caption]
Prof Tim Spector, a genetic epidemiologist, said: “Our new Tier Prediction model highlights that nine out of 10 are in the North of England, where most of the cases currently are concentrated.
“Unlike the North which is accelerating, London has been showing a steady linear increase, doubling every 21 (range 14-28) days so it will be interesting to see how the new Tier 2 restrictions influence the rate of new cases in the next two weeks.”
He added: “The data is no longer showing the exponential increases that we were seeing a couple of weeks ago.
The North West still has the most cases and the fastest acceleration of cases with doubling times of around 10 days
Prof Tim SpectorKing's College London
“But it is clearly showing new cases continuing to rise.
“The North West still has the most cases and the fastest acceleration of cases with doubling times of around 10 days.
“Slowing this rapid rise is a priority.
“Scotland, Wales, London and the Midlands are slowly increasing with a doubling time of 14-28 days and the South and East of England remaining relatively flat with five-fold fewer cases than the worst hit regions.
“Our data is roughly 7-10 days ahead of other sources meaning that it acts like an early warning system, whilst we wait for the data from the confirmed cases.”
According to the app data, there is currently an average of 33,130 daily new symptomatic cases of Covid in the UK over the two weeks up to 15 October.
This figure is based on the number of newly symptomatic app users per day, and the proportion of these who give positive swab tests.
The app’s data continues to show a big disparity between the North and South of England.
The most recent data from the app revealed that the North West has 7,313 new cases per day and has overtaken the North East and Yorkshire with 5,762 daily infections.
The South West remains the lowest region, followed by East of England and South East.
The Covid Symptom Study UK Infection Survey has been running since early May and has so far recorded over a million swab results from app users – the largest of its kind.
It estimates the number of current Covid-19 positive cases in the community based on the information logged by users in the app and the results from the swab testing programme.